Crop Choice Portfolio Response to Climate Risks: Evidence from Smallholder Farmers in Kisumu County, Kenya

Abstract

While it is expected that farm households will respond to market uncertainties and household demand for food commodities by diversifying their farm-level crop portfolio, it is unclear whether farmers' crop mix would as well be a response to unpredictable climate variability. We use primary data from 267 randomly selected respondents and apply a multinomial Logit model to hypothesize that crop portfolio choice are an ex-ante risk management mechanism to climate risks. The results show that access to information on climate variability influences the choice of maize, cassava, sweet potato, and sorghum which smallholder farmers grow in various combinations. Additionally, access to credit services, farm size, gender of household head, farming experience, and distance to nearest market influence the farm level crop mixture. These findings imply that, other than impressing on gender inclusivity, farmers' access to credit and market services could also be considered. Therefore, policies geared towards improving a better crop choice portfolio at the smallholder farm level would need to account for climate variability awareness. Besides, focusing on crop-variety mixes that are tolerant to climate risks is essential to enhance resilience in food systems among smallholder farmers in Kisumu County, Kenya.